Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency
- Downloads：1808
- Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
- Create Date：2021-06-26 09:51:11
- Update Date：2025-09-07
- Status：finish
- Author：Mark Lynas
- ISBN：0008308578
- Environment：PC/Android/iPhone/iPad/Kindle
- Download
Summary
This book must not be ignored。 It really is our final warning。
Mark Lynas delivers a vital account of the future of our earth， and our civilisation， if current rates of global warming persist。 And it’s only looking worse。
We are living in a climate emergency。 But how much worse could it get？ Will civilisation collapse？ Are we already past the point of no return？ What kind of future can our children expect？ Rigorously cataloguing the very latest climate science， Mark Lynas explores the course we have set for Earth over the next century and beyond。 Degree by terrifying degree， he charts the likely consequences of global heating and the ensuing climate catastrophe。
At one degree – the world we are already living in – vast wildfires scorch California and Australia， while monster hurricanes devastate coastal cities。 At two degrees the Arctic ice cap melts away， and coral reefs disappear from the tropics。 At three， the world begins to run out of food， threatening millions with starvation。 At four， large areas of the globe are too hot for human habitation， erasing entire nations and turning billions into climate refugees。 At five， the planet is warmer than for 55 million years， while at six degrees a mass extinction of unparalleled proportions sweeps the planet， even raising the threat of the end of all life on Earth。
These escalating consequences can still be avoided， but time is running out。 We must largely stop burning fossil fuels within a decade if we are to save the coral reefs and the Arctic。 If we fail， then we risk crossing tipping points that could push global climate chaos out of humanity’s control。
This book must not be ignored。 It really is our final warning。
Reviews
Ptrav
，
Basically， a repeat of the same author's "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet"， with all "predictions" shifted to the future by 15 to 20 years。Back in 2007， the same author predicted the death of of Australia Great Barrier Reef by around 2020。 Now it is going to happen， apparently， by 2035。Yeah， right。 Basically， a repeat of the same author's "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet"， with all "predictions" shifted to the future by 15 to 20 years。Back in 2007， the same author predicted the death of of Australia Great Barrier Reef by around 2020。 Now it is going to happen， apparently， by 2035。Yeah， right。 。。。more
Ashanti's Athenaeum
，
We now have some sense of what a global crisis looks and feels like， and the Covid-19 pandemic is a harbinger for the climate emergency we face。 In a full rewrite of his original call for a climate emergency in 2007， Mark Lynas presents a harrowing and bleak account of the consequences we will face as our planet continues to warm 1 degree （which we passed in 2015）， 2， 3。。 all the way up to 6 degrees of climate breakdown。 Mark outlines what each degree of warning will do to our world， both the hu We now have some sense of what a global crisis looks and feels like， and the Covid-19 pandemic is a harbinger for the climate emergency we face。 In a full rewrite of his original call for a climate emergency in 2007， Mark Lynas presents a harrowing and bleak account of the consequences we will face as our planet continues to warm 1 degree （which we passed in 2015）， 2， 3。。 all the way up to 6 degrees of climate breakdown。 Mark outlines what each degree of warning will do to our world， both the human tragedy and the horrific implications for wildlife and biodiversity， and how this will also implicate us。 Mark does not shy away from the detail， supported by thorough scientific research， evidence and consensus from IPCC reports， research papers， journals and studies。 It is information-dense but clearly written and easy to follow that is accessible to anyone who wants to learn more about the future we face。 Mark had once thought that we "could probably survive climate change。 Now I'm not so sure"。 This is a must-read。 。。。more
Peter
，
Hoe heb ik mezelf door deze 400 pagina’s （en/of twaalf uur aan luisterboek; ik wisselde de twee af） weten te ploegen？ Moeilijk te zeggen。 Ik nam mezelf een tijdje geleden voor De onbewoonbare aarde en nog één ander echt waarschuwend， alarmistisch boek over klimaatverandering te lezen。 Want als ik vind dat het menens is met die klimaatcrisis – en dat is natuurlijk zo – moet ik ook proberen de kennis die we nu hebben tot me te nemen en het zo goed mogelijk te begrijpen， óók als het angstaanjag Hoe heb ik mezelf door deze 400 pagina’s （en/of twaalf uur aan luisterboek; ik wisselde de twee af） weten te ploegen？ Moeilijk te zeggen。 Ik nam mezelf een tijdje geleden voor De onbewoonbare aarde en nog één ander echt waarschuwend， alarmistisch boek over klimaatverandering te lezen。 Want als ik vind dat het menens is met die klimaatcrisis – en dat is natuurlijk zo – moet ik ook proberen de kennis die we nu hebben tot me te nemen en het zo goed mogelijk te begrijpen， óók als het angstaanjagend is。Dit is de opvolger van Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet， een boek van Lynas uit 2007。 Omdat er inmiddels zoveel meer duidelijk is over de gigantische opgave waar we voor staan， en omdat we in de tussentijd nu niet bepaald onze co2-uitstoot hebben beperkt， is dit onze ‘laatste waarschuwing’。 Smeltende gletsjer， brandend bos op het omslag， alarmistische titel。 Wat voor mensen pakken zo’n boek op en ploegen zich erdoorheen？ Ja， ik dus。 Oef。Binnenin: een eindeloos aanvoelende opsomming van wat wetenschappers en klimaatrapporten ons in het vooruitzicht stellen。 Elke paar zinnen krijg je een nieuw， heel groot getal op je af gegooid – dat niet zelden moeilijk te plaatsen is omdat het inderdaad groot en eng klinkt maar niet in perspectief wordt gezet。 Onophoudelijk volgen zinnen als ‘it may be even worse than the models project’ elkaar op。 Eén paragraaf eindigt met ‘。。。the consequences hardly bare thinking about’， en die daarna pakt de draad weer op met ‘And it gets worse。。。’。 Zinnen beginnen met ‘Sadly。。。’ Of ‘Worryingly。。。’ Sub-hoofdstukken hebben titels als ‘Amazon dieback’， Deadly heat’， Dust and fire’ en ‘Hell on earth’。 Voor een nog enigszins hoopvolle， tot actie en optimisme aanzettende toon moet je wachten tot de allerlaatste drie alinea's。But let me repeat: it is not too late [。。。]。 We should never give up， and at no point should we hunker down and abandon any remaining hope of a better future。 We still have several decades during which our choices will have a huge impact on how far global heating accelerates over the course of this century。 My one insistence would be that sacrifices made must be fairly shared - we cannot demand carbon cuts at the expense of entrenching or worsening human poverty and inequality。Pessimists sometimes gloomily ask me whether they should still have children [。。。]。 My response is unequivocal: of course you should have children！ Bear children， love them， and then fight for their future with every fibre of your being。 To my mind merchants of doom are no better than merchants of doubt。 [。。。] Never despair， because there will always be someone whose life it is not yet too late to save。 That person might even be your child。So I invite you to join me in this pledge: I will fight on， even as the waters rise and the deserts advance。 I will never give up， never be passive or defeatist， even as the beauty of this living world of ours is eroded and degraded。 I reject survivalism and other self-centred approaches， and will always share what I have with others who are in need， as I would expect them to share with me。 I will never surrender to despair and will always fight to save what still remains。 If necessary I will fight on for years and decades， with endless determination and unbounded love， until the heat stops rising and our children have a future。 Een informatief boek， zeker。 Maar ook zo somber en steeds-maar-hamerend en het ene na het andere rapport opsommend dat het soms afstompend werkte。 Ik ben blij dat ik dit gelezen en geluisterd heb， voor een nog iets beter begrip van waarmee we te maken hebben， maar ik ben ook blij dat ik het uit heb。 。。。more
Oliver Bazely
，
Tedious doom porn， devoid of any narrative to provide cover from the relentless fact bombing， prone to cringeworthy one liners that would make Partridge proud。 Content matter is important， but I found the book unreadable。
Janka
，
To be honest， I don’t know what to think about this book。 On the factual side I was depressed all the time reading it。 It seems we are really doomed。 On the reading side， after Third degree I felt that the author is repeating himself （ I understand that he wanted to describe every aspect， but it was bit boring after third chapter） What I was the most disappointed about is lack of offered solutions。 Author is making strong statements throughout whole book how it is MY fault， but never tell me wha To be honest， I don’t know what to think about this book。 On the factual side I was depressed all the time reading it。 It seems we are really doomed。 On the reading side， after Third degree I felt that the author is repeating himself （ I understand that he wanted to describe every aspect， but it was bit boring after third chapter） What I was the most disappointed about is lack of offered solutions。 Author is making strong statements throughout whole book how it is MY fault， but never tell me what should I （not politician） do。 。。。more
Luis Brudna
，
Certamente está entre os livros mais assustadores que eu já li。Não é indicado para que tem problema de ansiedade ou depressão。Tem coragem？ Leia！
Rudi
，
Ik zou 3，5 sterren geven omdat （voor mij ） het boek wat wordt overwoekerd door cijfers die voor mij wat teveel voorkwamen， dan wel 4 sterren omdat het een belangrijk thema is en het geschreven boek goed toelicht ， Het geeft stof tot nadenken。 ， Brandstof， koolstof ， grondstof 。。 sterren stof ， Energie ， hoe ， waar ， en hoeveel。 te gebruiken
Fred Bosman
，
A book with an important message。 Sadly full of stylistic mistakes that undermine its credibility。
YourLocalSado
，
This book is definitely hard hitting， if you have a sad out look on the world don't read it。 Although， I think the sad， almost angry tone is really essential to get his point across and just shows how we need to change our actions。 Lynas is definitely pessimistic which adds to his reasonable frustration he has- you can tell he has very little hope for the planet which just hammers the need for action。 I am 12 and I wish I read this a bit later， just because the amount of facts and figures in it， This book is definitely hard hitting， if you have a sad out look on the world don't read it。 Although， I think the sad， almost angry tone is really essential to get his point across and just shows how we need to change our actions。 Lynas is definitely pessimistic which adds to his reasonable frustration he has- you can tell he has very little hope for the planet which just hammers the need for action。 I am 12 and I wish I read this a bit later， just because the amount of facts and figures in it， an older readers could probably digest it， I had to put it down every chapter to process the information fully and at times I found it hard to read， due to the lack of explanations on the facts he states。 In all fairness， it is aimed at adults who might now more about the subject as they have finished school。 Overall， it is definitely an essential read but I would recommend reading other books on climate change or listen to podcasts so you have a bit of prior knowledge to better understand it。 。。。more
J_BlueFlower
，
6 degrees does not sound like a lot。 Here summer can be 40C and winter -22C。 A difference of 6 degrees is nothing。 This book does an excellent job of showing how faulty and dangerous this way of thinking is。 I have also read The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming。 There is a great deal of overlap between the books， but it makes sense to read both。 Lynas focuses on the differences between difference temperature levels including the difference between 1。5 and 2。 David Wallace-Wells focuses mo 6 degrees does not sound like a lot。 Here summer can be 40C and winter -22C。 A difference of 6 degrees is nothing。 This book does an excellent job of showing how faulty and dangerous this way of thinking is。 I have also read The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming。 There is a great deal of overlap between the books， but it makes sense to read both。 Lynas focuses on the differences between difference temperature levels including the difference between 1。5 and 2。 David Wallace-Wells focuses more on how life will be in a world with climate changes。 Details like the growth of food plants with be greater due of more CO2， but the protein content will be lower pushing people into the malnutrition area。 。。。more
Wick Welker
，
One word: YIKES。Lynas does a more than thorough job of not only providing unassailable evidence of impending climate break down， but he takes your hand and， step by step， gives you a horrific tour of what each one degree C rise will do to our world。 Let's make something very clear: we are in serious danger。 The data and consensus is irrefutable。The problem isn't so much that the earth is warming， it's that it is warming at a rate 65x as fast than similar pre-industrial temperatures that happened One word: YIKES。Lynas does a more than thorough job of not only providing unassailable evidence of impending climate break down， but he takes your hand and， step by step， gives you a horrific tour of what each one degree C rise will do to our world。 Let's make something very clear: we are in serious danger。 The data and consensus is irrefutable。The problem isn't so much that the earth is warming， it's that it is warming at a rate 65x as fast than similar pre-industrial temperatures that happened 15 million years ago。 Go ahead and read that sentence again。 The rate of change is what is deadly。 You cannot shock the earth's ecosystem with such a rapid rate and sit back and say "it's cool， the earth has been this temp before。" And that assumes you're talking about anywhere between 2-4 C rise from pre-industrial Temps。 No， the Keeling curve has not gone down。 No， renewable energy has not changed anything because it only accounts for 4% of energy sources globally。The 1600-1700 year weather changes used by skeptics have been proven to be regional phenomena， not global， which is what is happening now。 It is likely that we will se the complete disappearance of ice at the north pole in our life times。 This hasn't happened in 3M years。 There is a connection with mosquito proliferation and dengue fever as well as malaria and Lyme with warming。 Climate change destroys food production。 I can't really continue summarizing this book because it is too depressing。 But， great！ We're back into the Paris accord。 Only。。。 the world would have to hit net zero emissions within less than 20 years to meet the less than 1。5 C rise of the Paris Accord。 This。 Will。 Not。 Happen。 We will be at 1。5 C increase of pre-industrial temperatures at 2035。 One solution: keep all fossil fuels in the ground forever。Read this only if you dare。 Written for a general audience。 。。。more
David Canford
，
This makes for sobering reading。 The author examines the effect on the planet of 1C to 6 C warming （ roughly 1。5F to 10F）。 Maybe it doesn’t sound that much but that is just an average and it won’t be uniform across the world。 The rate of climate change is already twice as much at the poles， causing huge quantities of ice to melt （which will significantly raise sea levels）， dislocation of the jet streams and a change in ocean currents which drive our weather patterns。 Some people argue we’ve had This makes for sobering reading。 The author examines the effect on the planet of 1C to 6 C warming （ roughly 1。5F to 10F）。 Maybe it doesn’t sound that much but that is just an average and it won’t be uniform across the world。 The rate of climate change is already twice as much at the poles， causing huge quantities of ice to melt （which will significantly raise sea levels）， dislocation of the jet streams and a change in ocean currents which drive our weather patterns。 Some people argue we’ve had global warming before。 Yes， we have， and we have had mass extinctions before as a result， and it might well include humans too this time。 What is different this time is the speed at which it is happening， so much faster than ever before。Governments committed to limiting the rise to 1。5C in Paris a few years ago but their actions don’t match their words， and as a result the author says we are almost certainly looking at a 3C rise by 2100。 Yes most of us will be dead by then but it’s about our grandchildren and their children。 They will suffer from our failure to act。 As a Native American proverb says， we don’t inherit the earth from our ancestors， we borrow it from our children。 At 3C there will be long periods of extreme heat every year - most of the USA will become an oven， Mediterranean countries will turn to desert。 In India， Africa and the Middle East， staying outside for any length of time will kill you。 Africa as always will suffer the most even though its inhabitants have contributed so little to global warming。 The author warns that 3C and maybe even 2C warming could well lead to a runaway effect which we can’t control， for example because of methane that will be released from areas such as Siberia， and the loss of ice at the poles not reflecting the sun’s heat back into space as currently， making life on earth almost unsustainable。 A must read book for our time and our future。 。。。more
Emma
，
[DNF at 25%]This really is a great book。 However， it is just too depressing to continue reading it （and yes， I’m kinda ashamed to admit this）
Yates Buckley
，
This book encapsulates the problem and the meta problem very well。 It is a terrifying tale based on real science and that describes how impact of warming leads to unsustainable outcomes and liely human and planetary collapse of ecosystem and civilisation。It goes by degrees where two degrees are apready morally unacceptable but the book covers values up to six which are uncharted。The author accepts that Nuclear Power is the only potential energy that could be dense enough to enable life in the ex This book encapsulates the problem and the meta problem very well。 It is a terrifying tale based on real science and that describes how impact of warming leads to unsustainable outcomes and liely human and planetary collapse of ecosystem and civilisation。It goes by degrees where two degrees are apready morally unacceptable but the book covers values up to six which are uncharted。The author accepts that Nuclear Power is the only potential energy that could be dense enough to enable life in the extreme six degree scenario， under some sort of domeswhere a fraction of the world population grows its own food （the rest is wiped out a la mad-max）。But if any crtitical thinker wants to really progress on this issue read the last two chapters。 We go from a moral extreme of decimating human population at six degrees to the self-stated religious position in the end chapter wherethe author will simply not consider man made intervention on climate， period。 And to further this accepts as morally just for people to make more children despite their near assured misery。1。 How can thw author ignore that geo-engineering could include anything from replanting to air sequestration or carbon capture， even before other more radical methods？2。 How can the author present a near inevitable catastrophe， then call to unspecified action， and encourage mote children to bring this battle forward？ There is a contradiction in values here。。。3。 How can the author find it “acceptable” or at least ok to describe a planet of mad-max plus covered biospheres but does not imagine that state powers would jump his ethocal concerns on geo-engineering before that point？Ultimately I guess the book is trying to drive political consensus toward reducing fossil fuel based dependence。 But even in this dimension things are not very easy on the policy side。 Overall there isn’t even consensus that a carbon tax would be socially fair。 Warming is a wicked problem， I wish we spent more time admitting how tricky rhis is。 And examine all reasonable solutions。 。。。more
T_Wragg
，
Much better than the original。
Doc Martin
，
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 A thoroughly depressing read！ 😢‘Under current policies we will pass the 1。5° C target in 2035 and 2° in 2053 on our merry way to this four-degree world。’ 😱
Cali
，
Interesting book and well researched。 However sometimes the author stretches things a bit， there are a few mistakes I found and some things that are not quite accurate。 The last part "7 the endgame" is completely useless， he simply repeats what he already said and ends on a hopeful note that just didn't do it for me。 His only solution is to use nuclear power and stop using cars and trucks but of course this shouldn't be done if it'll bring more inequalities （which it would） so he offers no solut Interesting book and well researched。 However sometimes the author stretches things a bit， there are a few mistakes I found and some things that are not quite accurate。 The last part "7 the endgame" is completely useless， he simply repeats what he already said and ends on a hopeful note that just didn't do it for me。 His only solution is to use nuclear power and stop using cars and trucks but of course this shouldn't be done if it'll bring more inequalities （which it would） so he offers no solutions nor alternative。。。 This book is important to grasp what the future has in store for us and it is quite scary to realize that we are talking about the near future （as in our generation and our children） and not just some distant future that we will never see。 In fact， as the author points out， we are already witnessing climate change。 。。。more
Q-rie deBerk
，
I was enthusiastic when I heard about this book and couldn't wait to read it。 I am now quite disappointed because it is just one long list spread out over 7 chapters。 I did not enjoy it in I was enthusiastic when I heard about this book and couldn't wait to read it。 I am now quite disappointed because it is just one long list spread out over 7 chapters。 I did not enjoy it in 。。。more
Morten Greve
，
Not an easy book to read， to say the least。 In essence， it is a digest version of enormous amounts of climate science papers published in the world’s best journals over recent years。 The account is organized around the “count up” from one degree above pre-industrial global surface temperature （the world we’re living in today）， then two degrees （in thirty years’ time？）， then three。。。 and in the end（！）， six。 More and more harrowing and depressing along the way， but unfortunately very well supporte Not an easy book to read， to say the least。 In essence， it is a digest version of enormous amounts of climate science papers published in the world’s best journals over recent years。 The account is organized around the “count up” from one degree above pre-industrial global surface temperature （the world we’re living in today）， then two degrees （in thirty years’ time？）， then three。。。 and in the end（！）， six。 More and more harrowing and depressing along the way， but unfortunately very well supported by facts and science。As such an excellent antidote to the lies and obfuscation of Lomborg and the other shills。 We need books like this one。 。。。more
Debra
，
Thorough， well researched and scary。 Although Lynas tries to be hopeful at the end， arguing that everyone should be fighting against climate change， it's difficult to be hopeful given human nature and the evidence all around us。 Thorough， well researched and scary。 Although Lynas tries to be hopeful at the end， arguing that everyone should be fighting against climate change， it's difficult to be hopeful given human nature and the evidence all around us。 。。。more
Owlish
，
"You cannot add a line of code into a climate model to represent the response of a country's political system to ten million climate refugees on its borders。 Even with all its complexity and approximations， atmospheric physics is always going to be much easier to understand and predict than human responses to climate impacts。"I wish everyone would read this book， and This Changes Everything， and Drawdown。I've noticed over the last five years that the most consistent development we've seen in cli "You cannot add a line of code into a climate model to represent the response of a country's political system to ten million climate refugees on its borders。 Even with all its complexity and approximations， atmospheric physics is always going to be much easier to understand and predict than human responses to climate impacts。"I wish everyone would read this book， and This Changes Everything， and Drawdown。I've noticed over the last five years that the most consistent development we've seen in climate breakdown predictions is that EVERYTHING has been happening faster/earlier/worse than predicted。 Time-tables continue to shrink， most estimates of temperature and damage and economic impact continue to rise， and several times in this book Lynas noted predictions that he made in Six Degrees （14 years ago） had to be moved up a degree based on current science。 It feels like we are crashing towards 3 degrees Celsius increase this century， which may trigger far too many tipping points to save the biosphere。 I'm deeply appreciative of Lynas' conclusion that we should absolutely never give up hope or stop trying to limit the damage， but human nature seems to be loudly and clearly showing that our species is not designed to do what is needed in this circumstance。 In Drawdown， Paul Hawken indicated that the biggest blind spot in all climate models is war。 Once millions of people are forced to flee their homes and attempt to gain entry to other countries， what do we think is going to happen？ Based on the political evolution of the last four years， you can't deny that mass war and death seems increasingly likely。 I will not be surprised if a nuclear weapon is used in the next 50 years。 Tribalism， coded deep into our DNA， is ultimately going to ruin us。 。。。more
Ferio
，
He sentido miedo leyendo este libro que， en realidad， es un comentario largo sobre la actualidad científica en materia de cambio climático， aderezado con pinceladas de las vivencias del autor estudiando estos temas。 No parece haber nada en el texto que no esté respaldado por informes científicos de alto nivel （la cuarta parte del libro son referencias y bibliografía） y el autor tiene suficiente experiencia en el campo y madurez personal como para haber cambiado de pareceres según avanzaba el con He sentido miedo leyendo este libro que， en realidad， es un comentario largo sobre la actualidad científica en materia de cambio climático， aderezado con pinceladas de las vivencias del autor estudiando estos temas。 No parece haber nada en el texto que no esté respaldado por informes científicos de alto nivel （la cuarta parte del libro son referencias y bibliografía） y el autor tiene suficiente experiencia en el campo y madurez personal como para haber cambiado de pareceres según avanzaba el conocimiento。Tras su lectura， echarle freno a la espiral descendente del cambio climático parece complejo。 La mayoría de los estudios se centran en lo difícil que será vivir en el s。 XXII en el 90% del planeta （y los problemas demográficos y sociológicos que conllevará）， pero la situación emepora gradualmente y creo que voy a tener una vejez muy mala si no encontremos alternativas limpias al consumo energético actual que sean factibles y las aceptamos como sociedad， especialmente decreciendo en nuestro consumo diario。Por otra parte， el autor menciona un par de veces una cuestión que puede parecer menor pero que es muy interesante: el resurgimiento de los totalitarismos ecologistas que intentan resucitar el tradicionalismo más infumable e imponer el control social asustándonos con el cambio climático， mientras proponen que la solución es cerrar las fronteras y dejar que se mueran los demás。 Sobre esta cuestión hay varios textos de reciente cuño en las librerías， aunque no podría decir nada sobre su acierto。 。。。more
Marg
，
Shattering。。。 but thoroughly well-organised anf documented with many， many fascinating insights into the far-distant past。 Do not pass this book by。
Leonardo Gedraite
，
Pode ser encarado como um complemento do livro "a Espiral da Morte" do Claudio Ângelo。 Infelizmente só tive contato com essa segunda edição da obra， que seria um retorno a primeira edição （6º Degrees） para atualizar as previsões antigas com as descobertas científicas da década posterior a publicação （2007-2019）。É um livro essencial para todos que queiram entender o que acontece na emergência climática - o livro é separado em 6 capítulos e， cada um deles， fala das previsões que temos com o aqueci Pode ser encarado como um complemento do livro "a Espiral da Morte" do Claudio Ângelo。 Infelizmente só tive contato com essa segunda edição da obra， que seria um retorno a primeira edição （6º Degrees） para atualizar as previsões antigas com as descobertas científicas da década posterior a publicação （2007-2019）。É um livro essencial para todos que queiram entender o que acontece na emergência climática - o livro é separado em 6 capítulos e， cada um deles， fala das previsões que temos com o aquecimento das temperaturas médias da Terra em um grau celsius。O livro faz uma revisão maravilhosa da literatura científica e trabalha com modelos e discussões muito interessantes， especialmente o último capítulo que faz um paralelo do nosso futuro com o passado da Terra reconstruído por modelos paleoclimáticos。Leiam。 Urgente。 。。。more
André
，
“Despite all that， three degrees is actually in some ways a best-case scenario。 If we ignore what governments say they are going to do and look at their actual policies – all the plans for new roads and airports， the billions spent on exploring for new fossil fuels， the vast expansion of coal-based electricity in China and elsewhere – the temperature outcome for the planet is even worse， with a 50:50 chance of reaching about 3。2°C by the end of the century， although there is a smaller chance tha “Despite all that， three degrees is actually in some ways a best-case scenario。 If we ignore what governments say they are going to do and look at their actual policies – all the plans for new roads and airports， the billions spent on exploring for new fossil fuels， the vast expansion of coal-based electricity in China and elsewhere – the temperature outcome for the planet is even worse， with a 50:50 chance of reaching about 3。2°C by the end of the century， although there is a smaller chance that this rise could be as high as 4。3°C。 Under current policies we will pass the 1。5°C target in 2035 and 2°C in 2053 on our merry way to this four-degree world。Once again， let’s reprise what is therefore in store。 At four degrees the planet has become suffocatingly hot。 Cities in the tropics bake in year-round ‘extreme’ heat， while southern states of the US experience temperature and drought conditions currently only seen in Death Valley。 Gripped by ‘megadroughts’， these states are swept by intense dust storms that strip away remaining cultivable soils。 Worldwide heat mortality increases by 500–2，000%。 Temperatures are so high in the Gulf region that for much of the year it is biologically uninhabitable， meaning humans are unable to move around outside and must stay within artificially cooled environments。 Temperatures and humidity also cross the survivability threshold in parts of South Asia， imperilling continued human habitation in areas currently home to hundreds of millions of people。 The uninhabitability belt also extends to eastern China， adding hundreds of millions more to the world’s burgeoning total of climate refugees。 Two of the cradles of human civilisation – South Asia and the North China plain – have now been rendered biologically intolerable for our species and all other warm-blooded animals。Southern Europe， Central America， much of Brazil， southern Africa， coastal Australia and southern China are now in the hyper-arid belt and undergoing severe desertification。 Dryland areas dominate the global land surface， engulfing nearly six million square kilometres in spreading deserts and bringing near-perennial drought to virtually all continental areas outside the higher latitudes。 In the United States wildfires incinerate whole forests， turning entire towns into embers and ash， with fire risk increasing by more than 500% across much of the country。 The largest conflagrations generate pyrocumulonimbus clouds with fire tornados and black hail， pushing particulates into the stratosphere and covering the Earth in a layer of ash and dust similar to the impacts of a small nuclear war。 Most of the world’s mountain ranges are now deglaciated， with even the Himalayas losing 75–90% of their ice。 This further diminishes freshwater supplies and reduces the potential of agricultural production to move uphill in areas where lowland temperatures are now too hot to grow crops。 With little remaining snowfall， heavier precipitation surges out of mountain ranges， causing devastating flash floods that submerge whole cities in a matter of hours。 Coastal areas are pummelled by Category 6 superstorms， with tropical cyclones also battering areas such as western Europe and the Mediterranean that have previously been outside the hurricane belt。 Across the breadbaskets of the world， temperatures are so hot that crops cannot survive – lethal heatwaves damage the enzymes and tissues of plants， reducing harvests often down to zero。 In the US the Corn Belt becomes a new Dust Bowl。 With no surplus to trade because of synchronous regional harvest failures， commodity markets for major staple crops like maize， wheat and soybeans collapse。 In the Northern Hemisphere suitable cropping areas are now 1，200 kilometres closer to the pole， including much of Siberia and Arctic Canada。 Structural famine is now a central part of the human experience for the first time since the Middle Ages。 Billions of people flee heat， drought and food shortages， rendering political boundaries obsolete and adding further stress to any remaining centres of complex civilisation。 In the oceans， acidification and toxic algal blooms affect most of the world’s coastlines， which are already transforming due to rapidly rising sea levels。 With most of Antarctica now in the melt zone， and Greenland thawing rapidly for much of the year， the oceans could rise by close to three metres by the end of the century。 This displaces another billion people。With much of the planet’s surface having entered new climatic regimes outside the evolutionary experience of plants and animals， this becomes the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago。 With a trillion tonnes of carbon now in the Arctic thaw zone， the permafrost feedback kicks into top gear， adding as much as another degree to global temperatures。According to the latest Climate Action Tracker report， ‘for the current policies projection， there is a 10–25% chance that warming could exceed 4°C by the end of the century。’ This is without considering the impacts of feedbacks like Arctic permafrost melt and the collapse of the Amazon rainforest。 Add these in， and we perhaps face an escalating risk of pushing planetary temperatures into the five-degree zone before the end of the century with current policies， never mind future emissions increases。 The IPCC’s fossil-intensive development scenario， termed ‘RCP 8。5’， sees CO2 emissions continuing to rise right up until the end of the century， thanks largely to a sixfold increase in coal use。 While the average temperature outcome is 4。3°C， the possible range extends as high as 5。4°C， well into my six-degree world。 Many have questioned the plausibility of this scenario; will we still be increasing our coal consumption in half a century’s time？ Hopefully not – but this scenario could also be seen as one where we are unlucky with positive feedbacks in the Arctic and elsewhere， which could deliver the required additional carbon by indirect means。 Moreover， at the time of writing， global emissions are still tracking closer to RCP 8。5 than to any of the other IPCC scenarios， with no sign of any imminent peak。 According to the Climate Action Tracker there is therefore as much as a 1-in-4 chance that current government policies deliver us into the early stages of the five-degree world。 This is a planet where all the tropics and sub-tropical regions are subjected to year-round ‘deadly heat’， with large areas – formerly the centres of human civilisation – biologically uninhabitable due to high temperatures。 Global food production is decimated， with agriculture only possible in diminishing zones of habitability in the highest latitudes and on continental margins。 Surviving humans are crammed into ‘refuges’ in areas such as Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula。 Much of our planet is a wasteland of rocky continents surrounded by hot， stagnant oceans。 Global temperatures are the highest they have been since the early Eocene， 50 million years ago。 All the ice on the planet is now doomed to vanish， yielding eventual sea level rises of tens of metres。 Hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity scour the world’s coastlines， even reaching as high as the polar regions。 Natural species that have survived thus far find their climatic zones as much as 5，000 kilometres away from current locations。 As wildlife is wiped out by the searing heat， those humans that survive inhabit an eerie， silent world。 Six degrees sees the greatest mass extinction ever on Earth， greater even than the end-Permian catastrophe that destroyed 90% of species alive at the time。 As I write， human carbon emissions are at least ten times more rapid than those that triggered the end-Permian cataclysm。 In fact， we are probably putting carbon into the atmosphere at a rate that is unprecedented in all of geological time since complex life evolved。 Warming at this level imperils even the survival of humans as a species。 With most of the rest of life having already gone， plant debris combined with the rotting carcasses of animals form floating mats that wash up along the dead shorelines of oxygen-depleted oceans。 Over the longer term， heating this extreme raises the prospect of a runaway greenhouse effect that evaporates the oceans and sterilises the biosphere， turning the Earth into Venus a billion years too soon。If all this sounds overwhelming， remember one thing: we are not yet doomed。 If global emissions ceased tomorrow， the planet would not even warm by 1。5°C。 Sure， some additional warming and ice melt is already locked into the system， but not much。 The global carbon thermostat is still largely within our control。 It is decisions that are yet to be made – airport runways yet to be built， coal boilers yet to be fired up， keys in petrol engines yet to be turned – that will determine how hot and how deadly our future becomes。 I offer this book as a warning to illustrate the choices that we face， not as a doom-saying prediction of inevitable apocalypse。 Anyone taking the evidence I have presented here as a reason to declare that ‘it’s too late’ to change our future is wilfully misinterpreting my message。。。。But let me repeat: it is not too late， and in fact it never will be too late。 Just as 1。5°C is better than 2°C， so 2°C is better than 2。5°C， 3°C is better than 3。5°C and so on。 We should never give up， and at no point should we hunker down and abandon any remaining hope of a better future。 We still have several decades during which our choices will have a huge impact on how far global heating accelerates over the course of this century。 My one insistence would be that sacrifices made must be fairly shared – we cannot demand carbon cuts at the expense of entrenching or worsening human poverty and inequality。Pessimists sometimes gloomily ask me whether they should still have children， or whether the future is now so bad that they must remain childless and lonely。 My response is unequivocal: of course you should have children！ Bear children， love them， and then fight for their future with every fibre of your being。 To my mind merchants of doom are no better than merchants of doubt。 By all means grieve for what is lost， but focus that emotional pain into determination， resolution and renewed hope。 Never despair， because there will always be someone whose life it is not yet too late to save。 That person might even be your child。So I invite you to join me in this pledge: I will fight on， even as the waters rise and the deserts advance。 I will never give up， never be passive or defeatist， even as the beauty of this living world of ours is eroded and degraded。 I reject survivalism and other self-centred approaches， and will always share what I have with others who are in need， as I would expect them to share with me。 I will never surrender to despair and will always fight to save what still remains。 If necessary I will fight on for years and decades， with endless determination and unbounded love， until the heat stops rising and our children have a future。” 。。。more
Thomas
，
Mark Lynas has updated his book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet from 2008。 In 12 years， the scientific evidence of warming has gone beyond earlier predictions especially in the arctic/antarctic regions。 Lynas admits that he is more pessimistic than before， but raising alarms so more people will take action。 Remaining below 1。5 deg C of warming， although technically possible is getting more and more unlikely。 The uncovered methane from permafrost presents more concern than before， whic Mark Lynas has updated his book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet from 2008。 In 12 years， the scientific evidence of warming has gone beyond earlier predictions especially in the arctic/antarctic regions。 Lynas admits that he is more pessimistic than before， but raising alarms so more people will take action。 Remaining below 1。5 deg C of warming， although technically possible is getting more and more unlikely。 The uncovered methane from permafrost presents more concern than before， which would only compound the problems which we have。 This volume serves as a useful compendium of more recent developments and is a needed revision to the information previous Six Degrees book （everything has gotten worse）。 Although a little out of date， it would be useful to view the National Geographic documentary "Six Degrees Could Change the World" which is based on the first book。 I share Lynas' concern for the urgency needed to address the climate emergency。 。。。more
Charlotte Collins
，
Frightening at times but well worth a read for anyone who wants to be more informed on the climate emergency
Bevan
，
Mr。 Lynas has written a book detailing the effects of climate change， starting from where we are now， at 1°C above the pre-industrial period， that is to say， 1850-1900， up to a possible 6°C above that level。 Each degree in temperature rise is taken as a warning and is detailed in successive chapters。The author has read hundreds of scientific papers， journals， IPCC reports and studies in order to assemble his arguments。 The result is frightening。 As the chapters progress， each one subdivided into Mr。 Lynas has written a book detailing the effects of climate change， starting from where we are now， at 1°C above the pre-industrial period， that is to say， 1850-1900， up to a possible 6°C above that level。 Each degree in temperature rise is taken as a warning and is detailed in successive chapters。The author has read hundreds of scientific papers， journals， IPCC reports and studies in order to assemble his arguments。 The result is frightening。 As the chapters progress， each one subdivided into specific issues， such as wildfires， glacial loss， food shortages， population movements， etc。， pressure builds toward a possible terrible new world。 Most impressive in his analysis， much like David Wallace-Wells's book， is the inter-relatedness of the many changes being made by climate warming。 No one can predict the future exactly and what it will bring。 One thing is certain: our lives and our planet will be vastly different from what they are now。 To pretend that we can keep on with business-as-usual and continue on this self-destructive path is clearly insane。 。。。more
Nancy
，
I really wasn't sure how to rate this book。 I can tell you who this book is NOT for。 It is not for someone who feels that there is no hope in life and wonders why they should bother going on。 It is not for someone already totally invested in the climate change emergency and who is looking for ways they can do something。 And it is not for someone who is looking for even a modicum of hope。This is perhaps the most depressing book I have ever read。 As someone who is already incredibly concerned abou I really wasn't sure how to rate this book。 I can tell you who this book is NOT for。 It is not for someone who feels that there is no hope in life and wonders why they should bother going on。 It is not for someone already totally invested in the climate change emergency and who is looking for ways they can do something。 And it is not for someone who is looking for even a modicum of hope。This is perhaps the most depressing book I have ever read。 As someone who is already incredibly concerned about climate change， I don't think I wanted or even needed to read this。 The statistics and projected outcomes are almost exclusively negative。 Yes， I do accept that this is reality， but I also feel that just making me， as an individual， feel so utterly and uselessly helpless isn't that constructive。 The author basically says， if we want to keep to 1。5 degrees warming， then we need to abolish all fossil fuel burning now。 Immediately。 OK， I agree with that， but the world and many of its right-wing， populist leaders， not to mention the old， white men whose sole purpose in life is to make profit， do not。 They have power。 I do not。 So essentially， the book is saying to most people， forget it。 There's no hope。 We've destroyed the world and thanks to the people who have power right now， it will keep going that way and there's absolutely nothing that anyone with a conscience can do about it。This books should be for the deniers， the right-wing business-as-usual profit seekers， the populist political leaders and the old， white men who seem hell bent on destroying the planet。 However， they are not the people who would ever read it。 And even if they did， they would explain it away as lies， conspiracy， alarmist rubbish or whatever other kind of self-justification helps them sleep at night。 So because of that， I fear that this book doesn't hit any marks。 The people who will read it are the ones who already get it and are going to come out of it feeling like they might as well just give up now。 And the ones who should read it because they have the ability to actually do something， won't。And just when I thought switching out the car to take public transport to work， and installing a battery on our solar system was a small but positive step， I now wonder whether we should have even bothered。 Not entirely sure how I'm going to sleep after this。 。。。more
Mariela Cortés López
，